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Business et Finance

Fortune December 2019

FORTUNE covers the entire field of business, including specific companies and business trends, tech innovation prominent business leaders, and new ideas shaping the global marketplace. FORTUNE is particularly well known for its exceptionally reliable annual rankings of companies. FORTUNE furthers understanding of the economy, provides implementable business strategy, and gives you the practical knowledge you need to maximize your own success. Fortune currently publishes 2 double issues. Each count as two of 12 issues in an annual subscription.

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3 min.

EDITORIAL EDITOR-IN-CHIEF Clifton Leaf DEPUTY EDITOR Brian O’Keefe EXECUTIVE EDITOR Adam Lashinsky DIGITAL EDITOR Andrew Nusca SENIOR FEATURES EDITOR Matthew Heimer FEATURES EDITOR Kristen Bellstrom DEPUTY DIGITAL EDITOR Rachel Schallom EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ASIA Clay Chandler CHAIR, MPW SUMMIT & COFOUNDER Patricia Sellers SENIOR EDITORS AT LARGE Geoff Colvin, Nina Easton, Shawn Tully CREATIVE DIRECTOR Peter Herbert DIRECTOR OF PHOTOGRAPHY Mia J. Diehl DIRECTOR OF VIDEO Mason Cohn SENIOR EDITORS Daniel Bentley, Lee Clifford, Scott DeCarlo (lists), Verne Kopytoff, Beth Kowitt, Ellen McGirt, Bernhard Warner (Rome), Claire Zillman (London) SENIOR WRITERS Maria Aspan, Erika Fry, Robert Hackett, Michal Lev-Ram, David Meyer (Berlin), Jeremy Kahn, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Phil Wahba, Jen Wieczner EDITORS Lydia Belanger (production); Jaclyn Gallucci, Rachel King, Polina Marinova, Radhika Marya, John Patrick Pullen, Karen Yuan (newsletters); Tamara El-Waylly, Jake Meth (commentary) DIRECTOR, LIVE MEDIA CONTENT Maithreyi Seetharaman AUDIENCE ENGAGEMENT EDITORS John Buysse, McKenna Moore…

3 min.
the trump slump

A FEW MONTHS INTO DONALD TRUMP’S term as President, Fortune senior editor-at-large Shawn Tully asked dozens of economists, policy experts, and business leaders to predict how the real estate titan turned TV star might reshape the economy. The resulting prophecy was an improbable meld of best-case and worst-case scenarios unfolding at the same time—a bipolar split we captured in the headline of our March 2017 cover story, “The Promise and Peril of the Trump Economy.” The promise, in short, was that Trump would usher in dramatically lower corporate tax rates and streamline regulation, two items long on the CEO wish list. The peril was that he would also do the other things he’d promised to do during the campaign. “The biggest risk is trade,” we wrote. “Trump is advocating protectionist policies…

1 min.

AND WE THOUGHT PREDICTING 2019 WAS DIFFICULT! Every year, the editors and writers of Fortune take on the unenviable task of predicting the year ahead: in business, the economy, politics, technology, and pop culture. And 2020 presents us with plenty of major events to navigate. The specter of recession is creeping in the shadows for the first time in more than a decade. An election of generational importance will shape America’s future. And an Olympic Games will hopefully provide a much-needed summer distraction. It’s going to be a wild one, so hold on tight and let the collective wisdom of Fortune be your guide.…

5 min.
the economy, markets & business

THE NEXT RECESSION WON’T BE AS BAD We’re now in the longest expansion in American history. But all good things must come to an end, and after the Great Recession, you might be bracing for catastrophe. Stanford economist Matthew Jackson has even floated the Forest Fire theory: that long expansions produce lots of marginally productive “deadwood” relationships that go up in flames when a recession hits, making the downturn worse. But a recent study from the Cleveland Fed found no historical evidence that long expansions produce deep recessions. So—barring another unpredictable shock—there’s no reason to think the next recession will be as bad as the last one. WEALTH MANAGEMENT CANNOT SAVE THE BANKS 2019 will go down as the year of the layoff in the banking sector. More than 50,000 of them. Deutsche…

3 min.
the tech forecast

FACEBOOK KILLS LIBRA When Facebook announced a global cryptocurrency called Libra last June, the company said it would launch in early 2020. Now those plans are in disarray as partners flee and regulators heap scorn on the scheme. In the new year, look for Facebook to throw in the towel on Libra—and launch Leo, where Instagram users can trade kitten photos for cash. PROTESTERS’ NEW TOOLS As demonstrations around the world grow over political and environmental issues, protesters increasingly take measures to evade the facial-recognition technology that has been spreading in recent years. Some use old-school scarves or umbrellas, but others turn to more innovative tools—fashion and makeup designed to confuse image-recognition systems and masks that make the protester look like a different person. PIRACY MAKES A COMEBACK Netflix, Disney, Apple, Hulu, HBO, and even…

2 min.
the world in motion

A SECOND ARAB SPRING EMERGES A second Arab Spring will seek to finish dismantling the authoritarian systems that survived the regional revolts nearly a decade before. Energy from late-2019 antigovernment protests in Egypt, Lebanon, and Iraq will spread to the rest of the Middle East. Once activists succeed in Egypt, demonstrations will follow in other countries with weak economies, like Morocco and Jordan. ANGELA MERKEL’S COALITION COLLAPSES Germany’s ruling coalition of Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU and the center-left SPD collapses, as the SPD’s struggle for relevance forces it to assert itself against conservative policies. An election sees the Greens, who have been peeling voters away from both parties, supplant the SPD as the main counterweight to the CDU—perhaps even becoming the leaders of the next coalition. LION ECONOMIES START ROARING With Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria,…