Which Way to Normal?
News flash: The coronavirus isn’t going to be public enemy No. 1 for the global economy in 2022. The biggest dangers this year will stem from inflation and the risk that policymakers will call the post-Covid recovery wrong. This is the year we’ll find out whether the global economy is robust enough to get by with less help from governments and central banks. And whether inflation is a temporary byproduct of Covid or a more persistent problem. When confronted with a wide range of possibilities, forecasters usually settle somewhere in the middle. Among those Bloomberg surveyed, the consensus is that the world economy will expand 4.4% in 2022, after the 5.8% bounceback of 2021. From 2023 onward, most agree, growth will return to its long-term norm of around 3.5%, as if Covid…