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The Economist The World in 2017

The Economist The World in 2017

The World In 2017

The World in 2017 app contains The Economist’s annual collection of detailed, numerate and opinionated predictions for the year ahead. The World in 2017 features leading figures from politics, business, finance, science, technology and the arts alongside prominent journalists from The Economist and other leading news publications.

País:
United Kingdom
Idioma:
English
Editor:
The Economist Newspaper Limited - UK
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3 min.
from the editor

Mr Trump’s stunning victory will send shock waves around the world Revolution will be in the air in 2017. Not only is it the centenary of the Bolshevik takeover in Rus sia, it is also 150 years since the publication of the first volume of Karl Marx’s “Capital” and 50 since the death of Che Guevara, the face of revolution on countless t-shirts. For good measure, the year marks the 500th anniversary of Martin Luther’s 95 theses, which he nailed to a church door in Wittenberg Castle (or so the story goes) and which led to the Protestant Reformation. It will not be hard to find parallels between the conditions that produced upheaval in the past and the rebellious mood in the year ahead. Americans have already voted for game-changing disruption. The…

4 min.
planet trump

For liberals 2016 has been a grim year. A wave of populist anger has swept through the West, leading Britons to vote for a divorce from the European Union and Americans to elect as their 45th president a property magnate with no previous government experience who ran the most divisive and ugly campaign in modern American history. Within a few short months voters on both sides of the Atlantic delivered a powerful repudiation of their political establishment; shifted the fault lines of Western politics from left v right to open v closed; and voiced a collective roar of disapproval of globalisation, now shorthand for a rigged system that benefits only a self-serving elite. These are body blows to the liberal world order. Just how serious they are will become clear…

3 min.
in a nutshell

Although he ran without a detailed policy platform, Donald Trump gave plenty of clues to what he would do once in office. One of his most consequential acts will be to fill the Supreme Court seat that has been vacant since February. Given some of the judges’ ages, that may not be the only appointment to the court during his term. Abortion law, a central concern for millions of evangelicals who voted for Mr Trump, will not change much. But by appointing younger justices he could lock in a conservative majority for years to come. During the campaign Mr Trump promised to block Barack Obama’s Clean Power Plan, which had already run into trouble in the court. Without the measure, which would have cut carbon-dioxide emissions from power plants, America’s efforts…

4 min.
bolshiness is back

This is a period of miserable centenaries. First, in 2014, came that of the outbreak of the first world war, which destroyed the liberal order. Then, in 2016, that of the Battle of the Somme, one of the bloodiest conflicts in military history. In 2017 it will be 100 years since Lenin seized power in Russia. Lenin’s putsch led to a succession of tragedies: Stalin’s rise to power; the death of more than 20m people as a result of the collectivisation of agriculture and forced industrialisation; and, partly in reaction to communism, the rise of Hitler, Mussolini and Franco. From the dying days of the second world war onwards, Western policy was dedicated to making sure that the problems that had produced authoritarianism, both left and right, could not occur again.…

4 min.
lower for longer

Sluggish growth is the new normal for the global economy. World output measured at market exchange rates will increase by less than 3% for the sixth straight year in 2017, further extending what was already the longest stretch of weak growth in more than half a century (see chart). The strong recovery that was expected after the global bust in 2008 never happened, and it won’t start in 2017. Donald Trump’s anti-trade policies, if they come to pass, will hurt the global economy over time, but won’t do much damage in 2017—unless he starts a tariff war with China, which is unlikely. Weak demand and poor productivity growth will be the greater problem in the coming year. A strong global economy typically grows by around 4% a year, measured at market…

3 min.
china’s chairman of everything

As they gather in the autumn for their five-yearly congress, the nearly 400 members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee will see their place in history take shape. This congress, the 19th, comes after 68 years of uninterrupted rule by the party. If it stays in power until the 20th, China will have overtaken the former Soviet Union as the world’s longest-lasting communist dictatorship. The comrades may be congratulating themselves already: there are few imminent threats to their control. Under Xi Jinping, the leader they appointed in 2012, economic growth has slowed but remained above 6% a year. Prodemocracy dissidents and separatists in Tibet and Xinjiang are easily quelled. America, far from preparing for the collapse of communist rule, is scrambling to cope with China’s rise. Since preserving their own…