help is on the way but the world still needs a shot in the arm!
As the coronavirus spread beyond China last spring, forecasters abruptly added two percentage points to their growth predictions for 2021. It was as if they had turned into a chorus of red-headed Orphan Annies singing, “I love ya, tomorrow.”
Their upgrades didn’t signify optimism, though. They were a consequence of the downturn the forecasters were expecting for 2020. With a deep recession as the new baseline, the partial rebound they anticipated would represent a big year-over-year percentage increase in output.
And here we are. Covid-19 is claiming more lives than ever, and vaccines are rolling out more slowly than expected, so economic activity this year will track well below its pre-pandemic trajectory. But because it won’t be as depressed as last year, on paper 2021 will look like a blockbuster. Bloomberg Economics…