A question of recession
In the coming weeks and months, New Zealanders, along with businesses, banks, the Reserve Bank and the Government will be tested by the reaction – or overreaction – to the global coronavirus outbreak. The BNZ was the first major bank to forecast a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – in the first half of this year. Therein lies a vexing problem for those whose role it is to comment on crises and to pick a path through them. They need to balance caution against the knowledge that fuelling people’s worries will only make a recession more likely, and possibly deeper and longer, than it otherwise might have been. Yet they also need to be transparent. As the BNZ said, and as the world has seen by the…