Table of contents for 03-10 January 2020 in Farmer's Weekly

Uncertainty was a major theme during the last few years of the previous decade, and judging by the forecasts we received from the various agricultural industries for the year ahead, this era of ambiguity is far from over. If anything, the future is becoming even more unpredictable. For me, the cartoon by the talented illustrator, Dr Jack, that accompanies the commodity outlooks in this issue (see pages 11 to 21), showing a group of analysts flipping a coin, pretty much sums up my feeling about next year, and probably the years after that. Due to growing climate variability, the climate models that have been meticulously developed over decades of observation and research are becoming less reliable. And the globalised nature of trade means that the decision of a hot-headed and…

Musa Mfengu knew nothing about horticulture when he left the Eastern Cape, where he lived with his grandparents and siblings who were all dependent on his mother’s income as a domestic worker, to live with his mother in Stellenbosch so that he could attend Kayamandi High School. As an enterprising student, Mfengu took the initiative to visit the Department of Genetics at Stellenbosch University, where he discovered the field of agriculture. With the help of the Western Cape Department of Agriculture, Mfengu obtained a bursary to study a BA Agriculture, which he completed in 2011. Mfengu has come a long way since then. He is now head of production at the blueberry producer Backsberg Estate Cellars, where he manages 31 permanent staff and 320 seasonal workers. Reflecting on what drove…

GRAINS Lack of rain remains a crucial factor in grain production Global maize stocks are expected to continue declining in 2020, according to Markus Monteiro, lecturer in the University of the Free State’s Department of Agricultural Economics. He said the US presidential election in November meant the Trump administration would, in all likelihood, try to stimulate the economy in an attempt to win votes. “This could result in an easing of the trade war with China, leading to a higher demand for US maize. “A lower than expected 2019 North American maize harvest, coupled with an increase in global demand, will therefore support global prices in 2020.” According to Monteiro, the prices of local maize for delivery in July 2020 were between R2 600/t and R2 700/t in November 2019.…

The South African wool industry experienced an extremely challenging 2019, given the drought and foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease outbreaks, according to Leon de Beer, general manager of the National Wool Growers’ Association of South Africa. On the positive side, the local clip was produced “mules-free” and was sought-after globally. Prices saw an initial drop of 30% at the start of the 2019/2020 season, but later softened to around 20% below the previous season’s prices. The FMD outbreak in January 2019 saw the country being stripped from its FMD-free status by the World Organisation for Animal Health. Consequently, some export destinations closed their markets for wool from South Africa. More than 70% of the clip was affected when China placed an embargo on wool exports from the country. “Fortunately, wool buyers remained…

It is expected that the R1,5 billion earmarked to meet the objectives of the newly launched poultry sector masterplan could result in the industry expanding by about 1,7 million additional birds slaughtered per week by 2022. This was according to Izaak Breitenbach, general manager of the South African Poultry Association’s Broiler Organisation. “The increase in volumes will take effect from 2020; the first projects have started, and production should [initially] increase by about 500 000 birds per week,” he said. A total of about 970 million broilers were slaughtered in 2019. Breitenbach said the most significant issue faced by the poultry industry was an unfair trading environment, as the industry was globally competitive in terms of cost per kilogram of chicken meat produced. Some of the unfair trade practices experienced…

The precariousness of the weather made it virtually impossible to gauge the direction South Africa’s potato production industry will take in 2020. This was according to JF van der Merwe, Potatoes South Africa (PSA) president and potato producer near Christiana. He said dryland production depended in its entirety on climatic conditions. Given the past few years’ drought, it was difficult to speculate what the new year had in store, he said. However, the industry remained committed to the production of top-quality potatoes that met all consumers’ requirements, he said. “South Africa is one of only a few countries where potatoes are produced all year round. This is because of the diverse production regions, including the Free State, Limpopo and the Western Cape. In summer, production moves to the Free State,…

South Africa’s table grape harvest is expected to return to its normal growth curve this season, thanks to significant rainfall in most production regions. Production had dropped from 62,06 million 4,5kg cartons in the 2017/2018, season to 61,1 million 4,5kg cartons in 2018/2019. Production volumes were expected to range between 61,05 million and 67,8 million 4,5kg cartons during the 2019/2020 season, depending on climatic conditions, according to the first crop estimate of the South African Table Grape Industry (SATI). Producers in the Northern Cape and the Orange River region had a normal start to the season, and Clayton Swart, communications manager of SATI, said hopes were high that vines had recovered from the drought in the Olifants River region. Nico Greeff, a farmer near Vredendal, said farmers in the Olifants…

Raisin production is heading for a fourth consecutive record harvest, despite the Orange River region losing 4 000t of dried grapes due to frost damage in October 2019. While it was still early in the season, Raisins South Africa estimated that production would increase from 75 000t last season to about 78 000t this season. PRODUCTION IS ESTIMATED TO INCREASE TO 78 000 TONS Ferdie Botha, general manager of Raisins South Africa, ascribed the higher volumes to new vineyards coming into production, along with new varieties with higher yields and/or drying potential being introduced. Market conditions were unfortunately less favourable than last year. Charl du Plessis, CEO of Orange River Cellars, said average prices had fallen 20% since last season, due to higher volumes from Turkey, and the US entering…

The outlook for mangoes and litchis is looking positive for the 2020 season, albeit not at the same level of rapid growth as experienced in other fruit segments. André Botha, technical and research coordinator of the South African Mango Growers’ Association, said the biggest issue faced by the industry during the past season had been the lack of adequate rainfall at crucial times during the production cycle. In 2018/2019, almost 93 900t of mangoes were produced, up from almost 82 000t compared with the previous season. “Although there are some orchards being [replaced by] higher-value crops, there are also new orchards being established, as well as old orchards that are being ‘top-worked’ to new and promising cultivars.” He added that growth was expected in the local and fresh fruit markets…

Maintaining discipline in the workplace is crucial for ensuring productivity and creating a positive working environment. The foundation of this discipline is a disciplinary code clearly setting out the rules and procedures that must be followed by all employees in the workplace. It is important, too, that the company’s disciplinary code is relevant and up to date regarding offences and appropriate sanctions, and that all employees are aware of what it entails. WARNINGS Just as an employee has certain rights, an employer has the right to take disciplinary action against an employee who is in contravention of the employer’s rules, policies or procedures. However, this disciplinary action needs to include warnings, and these must be in line with the disciplinary code. They can include a verbal warning, a written warning,…

“Streamline it, keep it simple and do the basics right.” This is what Morgan consistently tries to achieve in his farming operation via effective management. For example, he employs eight staff divided into teams with specific responsibilities. Wandile Gxavu has been promoted to a managerial position and serves as his right-hand man. Morgan also focuses on improving management efficiencies with technology. He has introduced a feed mixer, which has eliminated the tedious task of mixing licks by hand, while saving time and money. In addition, sheep can now be handled anywhere on the farm, thanks to a portable handling facility that is transported by bakkie on a modified trailer. “We go to the sheep now,’’ says Morgan. “It’s less stressful for them and we don’t need to wait for hours…

Many role players are involved in efforts to curb the impact of the polyphagous shot hole borer (PSHB) in South Africa. They include experts based at a number of universities, such as Professors Wilhelm de Beer at the University of Pretoria and Francois Roets at Stellenbosch University, who were pioneers in the response to PSHB. Further information about the pest and scientists’ work can be found online at polyphagous-shot-hole-borer.co.za or fabinet.up.ac.za/pshb, among other sources. For a list of reproductive species and information about other non-reproductive species that have been affected by the pest, as well as to monitor the spread, visit treesurvey.co.za. This also contains information about mobile technology to report suspected infestations.…

1. HIDDEN PRETORIA by Johan Swart & Alain Proust (Struik Lifestyle, R430) From quiet domestic detail in the Smuts house at Irene and a compassionate tribute to Westfort Leprosy Hospital, to the splendour of Marabastad’s Mariamman Temple and the exotically historic Museum of Natural History, you’ll discover and rediscover gems of Pretoria’s often unsung architecture. Proust’s remarkable photographic eye refreshes even the best-known buildings, and Swart muses on the details of history and aesthetics that these pictures reveal. 2. GOTTA GET THEROUX THIS by Louis Theroux (Macmillan, R340) In this memoir, Theroux tells of his early ambition to perform and the opposition to his geeky ideas and pitches. His famous father wanders in and out, nicknamed rather sardonically the Great Traveller. Theroux finds success in ways…

Commenting on the outlook for oilseeds in 2020, Grain SA economist Corné Louw said the introduction of the breeding and technology levy for soya bean last year had already resulted in important developments in the industry. “Seed prices have stabilised somewhat, with some seed companies giving discounts of up to 30% on their new seed prices.” Louw said the volume of soya bean being crushed domestically had hit record levels this season. “Where the crushers used to rely on imports, we are seeing more of the domestically produced soya bean being processed and consumed, which is really positive for the future of the industry.” He stressed that, as a result, there were expectations of low surplus levels heading into the new marketing season, which could stimulate prices for farmers in…

The 2020 outlook for ostrich product exports was similar to what the sector experienced during 2019, according to Francois de Wet, managing director of Cape Karoo International, formed through the merger of Klein Karoo International and Mosstrich. Production volumes for 2020 will be around 130 000 ostriches. He said the sector was not expecting to see an increase in leather exports, although he expressed the hope that preheated meat exports would grow, from current levels of 350t/year to 450t/year. It was also anticipated that the trade in ostrich feathers would continue to do well in 2020. De Wet said the challenges faced by the industry included limited global demand for ostrich leather. “It takes time to grow the market, and we are in the hands of the big fashion houses…

Vegetable production is expected to continue evolving in line with climate challenges and consumer demand in the year ahead. Heading into 2020, hot, dry conditions once again placed pressure on the availability and prices of vegetables in South Africa. Lindie Stroebel, general manager of the Southern Africa Produce Marketing Association, said consumer spending remained under pressure due to slow economic growth. Stroebel added that some of the global trends that would begin to impact sales and production in South Africa from 2020 onwards would include issues such as traceability, health and safety. In the sales environment, she said, demand for bulk vegetables such as potatoes, onions, tomatoes and cabbage, for example, would remain strong, as these were staple foods. However, higher-end luxury items were expected to come under pressure. The…

The pome fruit industry is in a much better position than this time last year, according to Jacques du Preez, general manager for trade and markets at Hortgro. This could largely be attributed to good winter rainfall over most production regions. He stressed, however, that the drought in the Western Cape over the past few years had contributed to the area planted to apples and pears not expanding, and rather resulted in older orchards being removed and replaced. Globally, apple production was set to increase 12%, while pear production was expected to increase 24%. Du Preez said that this was mainly driven by increased production in China. He added that a 20% and 14% year-on-year decline in apple and pear production respectively was anticipated in the EU, which could benefit…

Macadamia nut production in South Africa has increased exponentially over the past few years, and this is expected to grow even more in the near future, due to concurrent annual expansions in new plantings. According to the Mordor Intelligence Global Macadamia Market report, the market was projected to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6,6% between 2019 and 2024. Local production of macadamias was almost 16 970t in 2018, and was expected to reach 25 600t by 2024, or a CAGR of 6,9% during the forecast period. According to the report, the growth could be attributed to the rising awareness of healthy eating among consumers, who were more frequently choosing nuts as a healthy snack option and incorporating them into their daily diets. Furthermore, the increasing trend towards…

The olive industry experienced a shorter harvesting period this year, which only lasted from March to June. This could be ascribed to the effects of the recent drought, according to Karien Bezuidenhout, manager of SA Olive. Previously, late cultivars were harvested until the end of July, she said. “In general, the Western Cape had good rain, except for the Klein Karoo, but the harvest is not back to what it was before the drought, so the trees are still recovering.” Another challenge facing the industry was cheap imports of olive oil that shared shelf space with locally produced products. “The big olive oil producers in the world market, Spain, Italy and Greece, get significant support from their governments and therefore are able to land much cheaper products on our shores.…

Sugar industry role players have expressed quiet confidence about conditions improving for the beleaguered industry in 2020. Rex Talmage, chairperson of the South African Cane Growers’ Association, said the spirit in which all role players were pulling together was encouraging. “We are facing very real structural challenges and we are trying to find an optimal way forward. The solutions will not suit everybody, but we need to address the [entire] value chain in order to improve the situation.” He said farmers could expect a slight increase in relative value (RV) prices, from the current average of around R4 200/t of RV, due to a higher world price, and a smaller 2020 crop compared with the bumper crop of 19,5 million tons in 2019. With regard to import tariffs, the tariff…

Global harvests over the past three seasons have had a huge impact on the local wine industry. In 2017, the smallest international harvest in 50 years was recorded, which led to an increase in global wine prices. This was followed by the smallest harvest in 10 years in South Africa, when local production dropped 13% due to severe drought. The after-effects of the drought resulted in another small harvest in 2019, which was only 2% lower than the harvest of 2018 at 1,22 million tons, but 17% lower than the five-year average before 2018. The smaller 2018 harvest, together with better international prices, resulted in a 24% increase in the bulk wine price from R5,54/l in 2017 to R6,86/l in 2018. However, due to increased local prices, total wine consumption…

Although beef production plays second fiddle to his Merinos, Morgan runs a herd of 250 medium-framed Hereford-type cows on the veld. He focuses on breeding his own bulls, but occasionally buys a bull from an Eastern Cape Hereford stud. Bulls go to the cows in multiple sire herds for a three-month breeding season starting on 1 November. The calving rate is between 80% and 90%, and the average weaning weight (at six months) is between 220kg and 230kg. The heifer replacement rate is approximately 30%.…

An early December notice sent out by the Tshwane Market about market trading times over the Christmas and New Year period reminded me once more of the complexity around such arrangements. All the main markets do something similar. The Festive Season, while wonderful in so many ways, is a severe disruption to the fresh produce industry. The problem stems from the simple fact that fresh fruit and vegetables have a limited shelf life. A BUSY TIME Obviously, people who work in markets also need a break and an opportunity to be with their loved ones, but December is not the month during which most of them will take leave. They are immersed in one of the busiest times of the year. Summer fruit is in full swing, vegetables are plentiful,…

SAVOURY Mango, litchi and prawn salad Make the most of the summer fruits with this light, sweet-and-savoury salad that’s perfect for holiday lunches. Makes four servings 20 prawns 2 large mangoes, cubed 8 litchis, skinned, pitted and halved Some lettuce A clutch of rocket leaves SALAD DRESSING 60ml (4 Tbsp) fresh lime juice 20ml (4 tsp) soy sauce 15ml (1 Tbsp) caster sugar 10ml (2 tsp) honey 10ml (2 tsp) oil 1ml dried garlic flakes Pinch of red pepper 1 mango, pulped PRAWNS 1. Cook the prawns with some salt until the shells turn dark pink. Drain and allow to cool. 2. Peel and clean the prawns. 3. Refrigerate the prawns, mango cubes and litchis until needed. DRESSING 1. Combine the ingredients for the dressing, and refrigerate. 2. Place the…

The mainstream medical approach to treating chronic heartburn and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) involves taking strong, acid-blocking drugs for as long as symptoms persist. However, this medication fails to address the underlying cause of heartburn and GERD; in fact, it ends up making it worse, because it simply removes the discomfort, and people continue taking the medication indefinitely. Worse than that, acid-blocking drugs have negative side effects such as promoting bacterial overgrowth, weakening resistance to infection, drastically reducing absorption of essential nutrients, and increasing the likelihood of developing irritable bowel syndrome and cancer. Although pharmaceutical companies have always been aware of these risks, they do not warn against the longterm dangers of acid blockers, and advertise heavily. But the truth is that stomach acid is not a nuisance; it is…

With most of the country still on a rugby high, few people will be able to resist England coach Eddie Jones’s autobiography, 13. MY LIFE AND RUGBY (Macmillan, R330). It contains interesting insights in early chapters about his Japanese heritage and the impact of school and club rugby, as well as accounts of coaching the Wallabies and the Springboks. But for most readers, it’s his England years, and especially England’s 2019 World Cup story, that will be the biggest draw as he recounts how it felt to the bitter end. Ironically, our own Tendai Mtawarira doesn’t go that far in his memoir, 14. BEAST, co-written with Andy Capostagno (Macmillan, R290). But the unusual ‘conversation’ between Mtawarira and Capostagno giving their different insights, plus the larger-than-life Beast personality, make this a…

The pork industry was repeatedly cited at conferences and events during 2019 as an example of how to successfully drive industry growth. Following the announcement of the source of the listeriosis outbreak in 2018, there was initially a devastating impact on the industry, with pork prices halving overnight and the market suddenly being flooded with supplies. However, industry stakeholders reacted quickly, providing assurances about the high health and safety standards maintained in the fresh pork meat industry, while fostering a taste for pork among consumers on the back of what were suddenly very affordable prices. Isabel Bröcker, the head of business intelligence at the South African Pork Producers’ Organisation, told Farmer’s Weekly that 2018 had been the first time more than three million pigs had been slaughtered in a single…

With wildlife prices stabilising over the past year, opportunities were created for new entrants to the industry, according to Adri Kitshoff-Botha, CEO of Wildlife Ranching South Africa (WRSA). She said the stable prices also closed the gap between live game prices and hunting prices. “Feedback so far from wildlife ranchers and hunting entrepreneurs is positive, with many hunts already booked for the new year.” Wildlife economist Dr Flippie Cloete told Farmer’s Weekly that although it was difficult to be specie specific, average game prices were declining. He ascribed this to market forces. “Three years ago very few, if any, buffalo breeders would have agreed to a price of R30 000 for a buffalo heifer. Nowadays that price is readily accepted.” WRSA was positive that 2020 would see game meat introduced…

South Africa’s wine grape harvest is expected to be equal to, or slightly larger than, the 2019 harvest, but still smaller than the five-year harvest average of 1,36 million tons, according to the South African Wine Industry Information and Systems. Most of the production areas have experienced a good season thus far, with the exception of the Orange River region, which suffered frost damage in October, and the Klein Karoo, where ongoing drought conditions prevailed. While farmers had been under tremendous financial pressure even before the drought, Rico Basson, managing director of Vinpro, said he believed the industry, as a collective, was turning a new corner. “The drought has resulted in wine shortages over the past two seasons, which has driven up prices in the domestic and export markets. Prices…

South Africa’s citrus industry could not afford the “mess at the ports” to be repeated this year, according to Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA). “The problems at the ports have impacted negatively on South Africa’s reputation as a reliable exporter of fruit. One year can seriously dent that reputation; a second year will send buyers off to look elsewhere,” he said. CGA was working with Transnet and the Department of Public Enterprises to ensure that ports functioned efficiently in 2020, he said. With the rapid growth in the industry, Chadwick said it was also vital to ensure that there were sufficient markets to absorb the additional fruit. “The agriculture department and the citrus industry are close to making some breakthroughs that are critical…

The 2020 stone fruit season could yield good-quality fruit, with a slight increase in production compared with the previous season. This was according to Jacques du Preez, general manager for trade and markets at Hortgro. It was estimated that the peach harvest would be 7% larger, while plums and nectarines would see increases of 10% and 17% respectively. Du Preez explained that the increases were mainly driven by young orchards coming into production. “However, in parts of the Klein Karoo, the crop will be significantly [smaller],” he said. He added that it was unclear how long it would take for production areas in the Klein Karoo to recover. “They need rain and lots of it. Due to the long drought period, the water sources became very saline. This had a…

A crop of between 16 million and 18 million 4kg cartons of avocados is expected for 2020, compared with the 2019 crop of around 14,4 million 4kg cartons. This was according to Derek Donkin, CEO of the South African Subtropical Growers’ Association, who said the increase in volume could be attributed to 2020 being an ‘on year’ in the alternate bearing cycle of avocado trees. He added, however, that the amount of rain received over the next few months would have a decisive impact on the size of the 2020 crop, as major production regions were experiencing unusually dry conditions. Another issue faced by the local industry was that the country’s main competitor, Peru, would likely also yield a larger crop in 2020. “This will probably place pressure on the…

Did you, like me, blunder into management without any training or preparation? In my family, the word ‘management’ didn’t enter our conversation. At school, we never learnt what psychology, motivation and management really meant. And at college, with our attention focused on girls, rugby and beer, and just enough rote-learning to pass exams in physics, chemistry and the like, not once did we discuss how we would use our newfound knowledge in the real world. My first job of scouting for citrus pests entitled me to an assistant to keep tally as I circled the trees with a magnifying glass and called out the numbers. Never did I realise that I had been catapulted into becoming a ‘manager’, if only of one employee. As time went on, my team grew,…

Business partners Soyama Mthongana and Athenkosi Denga, both 26, started farming in Peddie in the Eastern Cape in 2011, but only formalised their business, Lizwe Meat, in 2015. Growing up in Port Elizabeth, the pair learnt about farming from their fathers and grandfathers, who ran livestock. From the outset, Mthongana and Denga’s goal was to build on the knowledge they had gained from their families, and find innovative ways to farm better at a commercial level. When starting out on their own, they decided to run farms independently from their families. SETTING AN EXAMPLE Denga says that one of the purposes of their business operation is to demonstrate that black South African youth can produce quality beef cattle. “We can’t leave unchallenged the stigma that farming is for the older…

The polyphagous shot hole borer (PSHB) is a relatively new threat to trees in South Africa. Yet such has been its trail of destruction that researchers, scientists, horticulturalists, tree farmers and landscapers have been left scrambling for a cure. The problem is that once a tree is attacked by PSHB, little action can be taken to save it. All that remains to be done is to fell the entire tree, dispose of the deadwood appropriately, and hope that the pest has not spread to any other trees. Around the globe, the PSHB (Euwallacea fornicatus) has a wide range of hosts, and can infect over 200 species of trees. THE BEETLE Prof Wijnand Swart, head of plant pathology at the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of the Free State…

Bacterial spot (Xanthomonas campestris pv. Vesicatoria) and bacterial speck (Pseudomonas tomato pv. tomato) produce similar symptoms and should be sprayed in the same way. One or the other disease is often present at some stage of tomato crop growth. The symptoms are dark, irregularly round lesions and are seen on all above-ground parts of the plant. On the fruit, they may be slightly raised and show a somewhat darker green halo. A leaf with several lesions will no longer produce chlorophyll. The dead leaves remain on the plant. Free moisture favours both diseases. Bacterial speck tends to develop more rapidly in cooler temperatures (between 18°C and 24°C ), while bacterial spot usually requires a higher air temperature (between 24°C and 30°C ). Speck is most commonly spread by droplets from…

The new KrugerExplorer app is designed to enhance any visit to the Kruger National Park, and was developed to put as much information as possible in your pocket. One of its best features is that it functions offline. At installation, all the contents, including the maps, are downloaded for storage on your phone, so that you don’t need a mobile connection to view them. “When we visited the Kruger, we would spend a fortune on heavy guidebooks and outdated park maps, and it felt as if we were carrying a small library around the bush,” says app co-creator Danny Broome. “People want the advantages that technology offers, but visit the bush to escape the stresses of everyday life, so it was important that we ensured the design of the app…

If you were given R30 million to invest in agriculture, either in new or existing farming activities or in the agriculture value chain, how would you spend it? I would definitely invest in agtech. There are so many technologies on the market that allow farmers and other players in the value chain to do things in ways they’ve never been able to do before. What is the best advice you have ever been given, and who gave it to you? I live by [former US president] Theodore Roosevelt’s words about the man in the arena: always dare to dream and take risks, even if it means challenging the norm. Roosevelt said: “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or…