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EXPLOREMY LIBRARY
 / Business & Finance
Bloomberg Businessweek-Asia EditionBloomberg Businessweek-Asia Edition

Bloomberg Businessweek-Asia Edition October 28, 2019 (The Year Ahead)

Each issue of Businessweek features in-depth perspectives on the financial markets, industries, trends, technology and people guiding the economy. Draw upon Businessweek's timely incisive analysis to help you make better decisions about your career, your business, and your personal investments.

Country:
China
Language:
English
Publisher:
Bloomberg Finance LP
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50 Issues

IN THIS ISSUE

8 min.
economies on a tightrope

To avoid a recession in the U.S. in 2020, households need to keep spending, peace needs to break out in global trade wars, and investors can’t get spooked—by the U.S. presidential election or anything else. It would also help if policymakers in Europe and China did their part to shore up growth, even though the tools they have to do so are limited. It’s likely that all these things will happen. That’s why Bloomberg Economics is forecasting that the U.S. economy will grow 2% in 2020 as the record-length expansion turns 11 years old in June. It’s also why election models focused solely on the strength of the domestic economy are predicting a win for Donald Trump in November. After all, real incomes are rising, and unemployment is at a 50-year…

2 min.
growth outlook

1 Alberto Fernández of the left-leaning Peronist party is all but certain to win the presidency in Argentina’s Oct. 27 elections. He’ll have a lot to do: The economy is in a deep recession, the peso is down 35% from the start of the year, and sovereign-bond restructuring looks inevitable. ② Germany can’t catch a break. The crisis in Turkey and the slowdown in China have hit its exporters hard. Now the all-important auto industry faces the threat of U.S. tariffs. The malaise in manufacturing, which appears to be spreading to services, will weigh on job creation. ③ The low-gear Canadian expansion is exposed to softer global growth and trade policy uncertainty. Risks to the 2020 growth outlook are roughly balanced. On the upside, the labor market could tighten even more, giving…

3 min.
counting on consumers

If the U.S. economy manages to sustain its record-breaking expansion into 2020, it will be because U.S. consumers didn’t lose their nerve despite all the talk of recession. Consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy—a higher percentage than almost every other country. (In China, it accounts for about 40%.) And while the propensity of Americans to shop has long been crucial for economic growth, it’s particularly the case now. That’s because companies have pulled back, hiring at a slower pace and postponing long-term investments. In the second quarter, business spending declined for the first time since 2016. Manufacturing, which was booming two years ago, is constrained after contracting earlier this year. A good deal of the blame appears to fall on President Trump’s trade wars, which have increased costs…

4 min.
a recession and the presidency

The real peril facing Donald Trump’s presidency isn’t Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren or even impeachment. It’s the possibility that the current mood of economic pessimism could intensify and push the country into a full-blown recession. Historically, a shrinking economy has been a near guarantee of turnover in the White House. In the last century, all the incumbent presidents who lost reelection—George H.W. Bush in 1992, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and Herbert Hoover in 1932—presided over a recession. Trump doesn’t have that problem—yet: Bloomberg economists predict the U.S. economy will grow 2% next year. But forecasts are trending in the wrong direction. The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model for the year ahead has climbed to 35%, its highest reading since the financial crisis. Business sentiment has soured on Trump,…

4 min.
israel’s big coming-out party

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf still don’t formally recognize Israel, and most have nominally maintained an economic boycott against it since before it was even a country. Even so, the business ties and warming diplomatic relations between the Jewish state and its neighbors in the Gulf have been an open secret for years. Those ties will be unveiled with fanfare next October when Israel opens its pavilion at the World Expo in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates’ largest city. Participating is like setting up an embassy that will last only six months: Close coordination between Israel and its host will be required on myriad and mundane tasks, including hiring builders and planning ancillary events. It may seem like a substance-free event, but Israel’s presence among the more than 190…

4 min.
a global guide to stimulus

Change in budget balance, 2019 to 2020, International Monetary Fund forecasts South Korea The export-dependent economy is growing at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The government cranked up spending by 9.5% in 2019, and its budget proposal for 2020 eyes a similar increase. The country can afford to splurge, having run surpluses in years prior. Italy Rome has been stretching European Union budget restrictions to their limits—but those rules ultimately mean that Italy, with its chronically low growth and high debt, doesn’t have much money to spare to stimulate the economy. To avoid having to hike the sales tax in 2020, a move that would depress demand, the government plans to introduce a levy on digital companies. Germany The poster child for budget rectitude in the euro region faces pressure to loosen the…