Bloomberg Businessweek-Asia Edition March 7, 2022

● The suffering in Ukraine deepened as Russia’s invasion entered its second week. ▷ 10 The United Nations has recorded more than 500 civilian casualties, though Ukraine says the figure is much higher. At least 660,000 people have already fled the country to Poland and other neighboring nations. The UN says the number of refugees could climb to as many as 4 million if fighting continues. Meanwhile, Russia has become an international pariah: Sanctions have cut its banks off from global transactions; the U.S. and European countries have closed their air space to its flights; Apple and Disney have paused sales and releases in the country; and its soccer team was barred from the 2022 World Cup. ● Worldwide coronavirus cases have passed 440 million, almost 6m people have died, and more than…

President Joe Biden’s most crucial task in his State of the Union address on March 1 was to start reuniting a deeply divided country. This would have been true even if Russia’s appalling assault on Ukraine hadn’t happened—but Vladimir Putin’s reckless gamble makes repairing U.S. politics more vital than before. A divided America is a weaker America, less able to secure its own interests and impaired as the leader of the free world, which the free world still needs it to be. The president rightly put Ukraine at the top of his speech. He was warmly applauded by Republicans as well as Democrats in Congress for his expressions of solidarity with the victims of Putin’s war. Opponents as well as supporters give him credit for guiding an energized alliance toward a…

▶ South Korea holds presidential elections on March 9. Polling shows Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party in a tight race. ▶ The ITB Berlin tourism exhibition returns from a pandemic hiatus on March 8 with a hybrid digital and in-person model. This year’s focus: restarting travel. ▶ It’s a big week for inflation data: China releases its figures on March 9, followed a day later by the U.S., where surging consumer prices have become a hot political topic. ▶ The European Central Bank sets interest rates on March 10. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has thrown economists’ predictions off course; an increase is looking farther away. ▶ Cathay Pacific reports earnings on March 9. Its Hong Kong hub has been isolated during a major Covid outbreak, even…

The European Union, the U.S., and a handful of America’s allies in Asia have responded to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine with financial sanctions unprecedented for a target Russia’s size. The steps taken to isolate it within the global financial system are aimed at punishing President Vladimir Putin by sowing chaos in his country’s economy. In the first week of the conflict, Russia’s central bank was struggling to contain the fallout on its own side of the border, while Ukraine’s was able to maintain a semblance of stability even as it rallied global financial resources around its defense effort. Central banks have been key players in war finance since their inception. “You can go back to the establishment of the Bank of England in the 1690s, and you can see directly where that…

The sanctions the U.S. and Europe are slapping on Russia’s economy and the billionaires around President Vladimir Putin are unprecedented in scope. Some experts wonder if these powers have made clear what actually needs to happen to get those restrictions lifted. With each day bringing new punishments—against Russia’s central bank, the airline sector, and more—President Joe Biden’s focus has been on inflicting as much pain as possible and slowing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The broad reach of the measures, and the coordination among the U.S. and other powers, has also demonstrated the international community’s united anger at the invasion of the sovereign country. But there’s concern that the administration isn’t thinking hard enough about how to bring the conflict to an end. That’s spurring fears even among Biden supporters, because it suggests…

An analysis from Bloomberg Economics shows how the war in Ukraine could affect growth, inflation, and monetary policy. The three potential scenarios focus on major economies, but countries everywhere will feel the impact of food and energy price spikes. Some nations, such as Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf oil exporters, might even benefit. But for most emerging-market countries—already suffering slower recoveries—higher prices and capital outflows could exacerbate the risk of post-Covid-19 debt crises. Wars are inherently unpredictable, and events are likely to be messier than any forecast. But one thing appears clear: Among major economies, Russia will suffer the most. The intensity of market moves, with the ruble plunging and bets on debt default soaring, is an indication that the price for President Vladimir Putin’s expansionist foreign policy may be high. ●…