THIS TIME LAST year, we wrote about how difficult forecasting was and then proceeded to outline five possible investment trends for 2021.
Interestingly, we were confident that the pandemic would be controlled. In hindsight, this proved unduly optimistic, as was our view that global inflation was unlikely to become a significant issue.
The chart on the right shows how Covid-19 cases have soared globally, while CPI (consumer price index) inflation has remained elevated across the 20 largest industrial economies.
In hindsight, these two wrong calls were related as successive Covid-19 waves and lockdowns skewed demand from services to durable goods, and severely disrupted global supply chains, leading to broad-based and substantial increases in prices.
We were on firmer ground in predicting that global growth would come back strongly.
In 2021,…
